Screenshots from a Bureau of Labor Statistics Interactive Map showing the unemployment rate by state 2 months before the presidential election since 1980. The party in power and the party that eventual won the White House is listed below each map.
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[tags]United States, Unemployment, Election[/tags]
Updated Sept 2008 map with election winner.
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At what point did they change how unemployment was calculated? I’m going to guess some time between 1992 and 1996, based on the maps. (Or between 1984 and 1988, since 1992 was a particularly down period, if I remember right.)
That would seem to bear on the numbers a bit.
I could not find a reference to this on the BLS web site. However, in my experience I have found that when they change their method for calculation they try to recreate the history so you have a consistent historical data series to work with.